Real Money vs Play Money Prediction Markets

Compare real money and play money prediction markets. Understand accuracy differences, legal considerations, and use cases for each.

Last updated: April 2026

Choosing the Right Market Type

Real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) and play-money platforms (Metaculus, Manifold) serve different purposes. Real-money markets tend to be more accurate due to financial incentives, while play-money markets offer lower barriers to entry and broader event coverage.

  • Real money - Higher accuracy, financial incentives, regulatory requirements
  • Play money - Free to participate, broader topics, great for learning
  • Accuracy - Research shows real-money markets are generally more accurate
  • Accessibility - Play-money markets have no financial risk and fewer restrictions

New to prediction markets? Start with our beginner guide or browse free prediction market tools.

outcometick

outcometick sells historical tick data for the crypto Up/Down markets on Polymarket (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, BNB, HYPE) and Predict.fun (BTC, ETH, BNB), archived since June 2026. It carries the Chainlink streams these markets settle on (with the TWAP streams on Polymarket), plus order books, Polymarket trade prints and each market's strike and outcome, so results can be recomputed. Files are checksummed, downloaded by API. A hosted sandbox runs Python or Node.js strategies on the same data.

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KalshiSpy

Live dashboard of what Kalshi's top-earning, ID-verified traders hold and trade, ranked by lifetime profit. Track whales in trending markets, browse top earners' trades in the trade explorer, get alerts when top traders enter a market, and review every settled win. The free ranking at kalshispy.com/top-kalshi-traders updates hourly; names and profits are verifiable on kalshi.com. An MCP server and OpenAPI let ChatGPT, Claude and Cursor answer with the same live data.

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TradeLabsAI

The leading analytical software for traders. TradeLabsAI is a charting and research tool for Polymarket's short term crypto up or down markets (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP and DOGE): live price to beat and countdown for every 5 and 15 minute round, AI chart analysis, free paper trading with virtual money, a weekly paper trading competition and a public record of resolved rounds. Free to start, with paid plans for heavier use.

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Dubium

Free public probability dial for everyday claims: ask a true/false question and get an explicit confidence on a true / false / in-between dial, powered by TypeSafe Jev. Built for probability literacy and making uncertainty visible—not chat. Unpaid free try; no signup required for a first question.

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MoonX

We've turned Polymarket into a moonshot machine: small bets on long shots that pay anywhere from nothing to 1000x. Every shot launches live on the feed, and the ones that moon make the Legends board.

Prediction MarketsResearch
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CobiaPicks

Cobia is the data, models and graded track record that sit on top of Polymarket and Kalshi — not another exchange. One screen: live picks, a Vegas engine, cross-venue line-shopping, smart-money tracking and our own trained per-game models, every pick graded from the settled outcome with ROI beside hit rate.

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EventTracker

PodComet EventTracker brings prediction-market and event-contract data from multiple platforms into one place. Explore markets covering sports, politics, crypto, economics, and more; track changing market expectations; and research related contracts across venues. A FREE tier supports market exploration, while ET& offers additional analytical tools and insights. EventTracker is a read-only research platform—it does not execute trades or hold customer trading funds.

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0xinsider

Polymarket analytics for sports and esports in real-time. 0xinsider grades every tracked Polymarket wallet S to F on its settled P&L, shows which side the profitable wallets hold on every game, lists large trades with the grade of the wallet behind each one, and publishes a daily pick on a public record, win or lose. The same data is available through a REST API and a read-only remote MCP server with 33 tools.

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Smart Money Dashboard

PolyScope is an analytics and research platform for Polymarket traders. It helps users discover profitable wallets, track smart money activity, compare trader performance across categories such as politics, sports, and crypto, and study market behavior using on-chain data. PolyScope also publishes research, guides, and data-driven insights designed to make prediction markets easier to analyze and understand.

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3betmedia

Creator-led marketing agency for prediction markets and Web3. 3betmedia runs KOL, influencer, streamer, UGC and clipping campaigns for prediction market platforms, trading tools and crypto projects, priced on wallets, deposits or verified views.

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Vultax

Vultax publishes original prediction-market research on Polymarket wallet performance, probability calibration and market structure. Its public studies include methods and limitations. The live crypto terminal covers order books, whale flow, wash-trading risk, spoofing signals and fee-adjusted arbitrage. The dedicated prediction-market desk is in preview and its frontend is still being completed; it does not route live-money prediction-market orders.

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Scanverity

Scanverity provides read-only research on supported Polymarket contracts: written resolution rules, named sources, timestamped evidence and order-book context. The research workspace and Resolution API are separate offerings. API access is a limited, approval-required private beta; paid production use requires separate approval. No trade execution or guaranteed outcome.

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BetResearcher Betting Math Calculators

Free calculator hub for betting math and prediction-market-adjacent research workflows: odds conversion, implied probability, no-vig fair odds, expected value, Kelly staking, arbitrage, bankroll planning, payouts, and bet tracking.

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RivoMarkets

Rivo is a prediction market terminal covering both Polymarket and Kalshi. Track large trades with the trader, market, side, size and entry price attached, see traders ranked on settled performance rather than self-reported numbers, and review resolved win/loss history. Backtest a rule against markets that already resolved, run it on paper, then execute it on Autopilot through your own connected account. Live autopilot runs on Kalshi via your own API key; Polymarket is research, alerts and paper trading for now. Non-custodial: funds stay at the venue. Includes a REST API and a remote MCP server.

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MarketMaster

Live edge terminal for Kalshi and Polymarket. Scans thousands of markets continuously, models a fair value for each one, and ranks the mispriced ones by expected value with quarter-Kelly position sizing. Before a cross-venue pair is labelled arbitrage, an automated verifier confirms both legs resolve on identical criteria; genuinely ambiguous pairs are withheld rather than shown as risk-free. Opportunities are priced off live ask prices using each venue's exact fee curve rather than midpoints, and ranked by annualised return instead of raw spread. The scanner, the analyzer, the trade journal and the smart-money whale feed are free with no card. Pro ($12.99/mo) adds the cross-venue arbitrage feed, alerts within minutes and unlimited watchlists. A separate data API runs from free to 1,000,000 requests a month, with Python and JavaScript SDKs, WebSocket streaming and an MCP server. Read-only by design: it cannot place trades or move funds. Not financial advice.

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Settlement Edge

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ResolutionWire

ResolutionWire watches the primary sources that decide prediction markets — Treasury, BLS, the Fed, SEC EDGAR, courts — and timestamps the moment each answer publishes, with the market price at detection. Every call is graded against official venue settlements on a public, hash-chained ledger. Free receipts + ledger; $19/mo for real-time alerts (Telegram or members terminal).

News & AggregatorsResearch
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Edge Market

EdgeMarket is a real-time intelligence platform for prediction markets and crypto. Track Polymarket order flow, whale positioning and market structure, monitor smart-money activity, receive live alerts, and access measured market signals, sentiment data and research tools from one dashboard.

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BetResearcher Sports Betting Research App Market Map

Independent research map of bettor-facing research tools across odds screens, EV scanners, prop databases, AI bet-slip analyzers, trackers, and prediction-market-adjacent price-comparison workflows. Includes free calculator-backed betting math references.

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Prediction Markets Pro

Prediction Markets Pro provides analytics dashboards and research tools to help traders find value and get an edge on event contract platforms like Kalshi. It aggregates historical data, live pricing, and specialized trackers to analyze Mentions markets and political/governmental action markets.

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Polyrama

Polyrama is a real-time prediction-market terminal for Polymarket and Kalshi. It combines live odds, cross-venue market search, public-wallet analytics, trader leaderboards, whale and mispricing signals, dashboard state, historical backtests, REST API access, and an open-source MCP server for AI agents. The MCP exposes research and paper-trading tools only; it does not place live orders.

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DG3 Terminal

DG3 Trade is a Polymarket sports trading terminal that ranks markets by expected value, adds live order book and sharp money context, and executes trades in under 100ms.

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OddSage

Paper-only prediction-market research platform. Paste a Polymarket URL to review market rules, resolution sources, quotes, spread, liquidity and freshness, then prepare and document a historical paper test. No wallet connection or live order execution.

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PredictionMarketsPicks Quant (MCP Server)

A remote Model Context Protocol (MCP) server that gives Claude, ChatGPT, Cursor and any MCP-compatible agent 23 prediction-market quant tools over Streamable HTTP. No install, and no API key for the free surface. Endpoint: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp 16 tools are callable with no key — EV, Kelly sizing, probability conversion, Bayesian updating, base-rate gap, combo edge, plus eight fantasy-football draft tools. Two more (cross-venue arbitrage detection and a six-category market pulse) return capped results with no key and full depth with one. Five Pro tools cover NFL model edges and player props, options-implied commodity edge, the daily mispricing scan, and the live edge-alerts feed. Built by PredictionMarketsPicks. Listed on Smithery, Glama (Official), PulseMCP and the official MCP registry.

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PredictionMarketsPicks

Independent analysis and quant tooling for Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts, published by the analyst collective The 7 Oracles. 25 quant tools on the site, most of them free: EV calculator, Kelly sizing, probability/odds conversion, Bayesian updater, base-rate scanner, a fully-free combo edge builder with a 7-tier verdict ladder, KL-divergence, a cross-platform Kalshi/Polymarket arbitrage scanner, a daily mispricing scan, commodity and metals edge signals driven by options-implied volatility, NFL power ratings and win probability, and a state-by-state legality map. The same engine is exposed to AI agents as a Model Context Protocol server — 23 tools callable from Claude, ChatGPT and Cursor, 16 of them with no API key. Coverage is numbers-first and calibrated: model-vs-market reads, a published graded track record on every signal feed, and explicit methodology on every tool. Prediction markets are treated as event derivatives rather than as a sportsbook — trader, position, contract. Free tier includes the newsletter, daily movers and email-gated tools. Pro is $14.99/mo or $150/yr.

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PolyOrderBooks

Historical Polymarket market data API for research and backtesting. Access archived L2 order books, price history, liquidity metrics, and market data through a REST API or Python SDK. Includes a free tier for getting started.

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Conviction Lens

Explore Polymarket traders' historical profits, market focus and trade sizes. Start with five public profiles, with no account or card required. Free trade feeds are delayed by 24 hours; real-time feeds require Pro. Historical results do not guarantee future returns.

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Skewfeed

Skewfeed is an early-access prediction-market analytics product for investigating activity across Polymarket and Kalshi. Its public resources explain signal stages, large-trade and wallet interpretation, volume and liquidity context, and why apparent arbitrage can disappear after fees, fills, contract differences, and settlement rules. Public pages do not provide live signals or place trades.

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Polymarket Academy

Free educational guides for Polymarket copy trading — in-depth bot reviews and comparisons, security and custody breakdowns, wallet-selection guides, and step-by-step tutorials for beginners.

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Polywise

Free Duolingo-style learning game that teaches prediction market basics: reading prices as probabilities, judging edge and expected value, and understanding resolution rules. Uses case studies from real Polymarket markets. Includes a free payout/edge calculator and a 40-term plain-English glossary. Browser-based, no account or deposit required.

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PolyMaster

PolyMaster is a prediction market intelligence platform built for prediction markets, with its current implementation focused on Polymarket. It combines transparent on-chain analytics, trader evaluation, and automated copy execution to help users identify repeatable trading skill—not just historical profitability. By providing deeper context beyond leaderboard rankings, PolyMaster helps traders make more informed decisions. The platform is currently free to use.

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Prediction Market Intelligence Platform

PMIP streams the live in-contract spread of any market — real-time bid/ask and a Yes/No arbitrage check — tracks Kalshi and Polymarket side by side, and lets you ask an AI Analyst, grounded in that live data, about any market or your own positions. Tell a real edge from a false one caused by wording, deadline, and resolution-rule mismatches.

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OVERROUND

Profit leaderboards mostly reward bankroll and luck. OVERROUND asks a narrower question: which Polymarket wallets are actually worth watching? It rebuilds the leaderboard from the complete on-chain fill history (488 million fills, more than 700,000 wallets scored across 60+ categories as of July 2026), collapses correlated markets into independent events, removes the structural longshot premium, shrinks small samples toward the category baseline, and ranks wallets within their domain of expertise. Each ranked wallet gets a public calibration record, and every featured alert (the alert stream subscribers receive) is graded in public on the receipts page, losses included. The methodology is published in full, including its limitations. OVERROUND is an information product: it does not execute trades, hold funds, or recommend transactions.

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Predictbook

Predictbook is a free alerts & notifications tool built for Polymarket traders — Your go-to source for all things prediction markets. Predictbook is a data-intelligence tool and media platform for the prediction market ecosystem. Predictbook tracks and parses large-scale on-chain transactions across platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and others, offering real-time alerts on whale wallet movements, algorithmic bot execution, and arbitrage opportunities. By combining automated data feeds with fast news updates and market analysis, Predictbook provides traders with a clear view of what collective smart money is pricing in.

AnalyticsNews & Aggregators
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Mantapex

Mantapex is a portfolio tracking, visualization, and research platform for cryptocurrencies and prediction markets. The platform helps users monitor portfolios, DeFi positions, and prediction market exposure through analytics, market data, news, and unique, interactive theme-based visualizations.

AnalyticsNews & Aggregators
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GhostLeg

GhostLeg is a sports betting and prediction-market intelligence platform that centralized sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket in one feed. We expose the underlying odds data, custom analytics, and derived signals (team streaks, predictions, line velocity, etc.) via an intelligence dashboard and Data API.

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WinWeatherBot

WinWeatherBot is a Windows desktop app that trades Polymarket weather markets automatically. It blends a 138-member forecast ensemble across GFS, ECMWF, ICON and NOAA, and weights each model by recent accuracy. Self-custody and Microsoft-signed: your Polymarket key stays in Windows Keyring and never leaves your machine.

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Auspex Terminal

Auspex Terminal is an advanced trading terminal for prediction market traders. Aggregates live data from all platforms into one interface. Surface arbitrage opportunities in real time, analyze probability charts with full technical overlays, track live positions across all your API supported accounts with advanced portfolio tracking/insight and much more. Built by traders, for traders.

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Airavat

Airavat is a trading analytics and automation platform for crypto & prediction markets. It continuously indexes on-chain Polymarket activity to surface trader performance, market data, and trade opportunities in real time. Core capabilities: - Trader scoring — ranks traders across PnL, win rate, Sharpe, drawdown, and more, sliced by category and time window - Filters — matches incoming trades against trader, market, and trade criteria you define - Automation — turns filters into actions: email alerts, paper trades with full PnL simulation, or real on-chain trades that execute directly on Polymarket's order book Currently in private alpha on Polymarket, with Hyperliquid perps and Options trading coming next.

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PolyMart

A directory of Polymarket tools. Trading bots, analytics dashboards, portfolio trackers, signal feeds, and APIs.

Research
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Qwidgets

Free cross-exchange prediction market analytics designed for users coming from stocks & options. Compose data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and other exchanges into shareable workspaces with charts, order books, P&L projections, and markdown narratives. Optionally link a Kalshi account for integrated portfolio management and trading. No signup required to view or share.

AnalyticsNews & Aggregators
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Mesh

Mesh provides searchable transcripts, speaker profiles, topic taxonomy, and time-series analysis tools for prediction market-relevant events — earnings calls, political speeches, Fed proceedings, and more. Access everything through a REST API or MCP server for AI agent integration.

AnalyticsNews & Aggregators
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TurbineFi

Turbine allows you to build, backtest, and deploy automated prediction market strategies, using plain english. You can create a new strategy using AI, or pick one of our 1k+ community strategies, backtest it, and have it running in seconds.

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Predictefy

Predictefy is a prediction market trading terminal and aggregator for pro traders.

AnalyticsNews & Aggregators
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PM Fees

Fee tracking and revenue estimates for Kalshi and Polymarket.

AnalyticsPrediction Markets
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PredictionRate

Find the best prediction market rates instantly, we track and compare live odds and prices across top prediction markets like Polymarket, Kalshi, and more.

AnalyticsPrediction Markets
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CoinLobster

Free Combined CoinLobster Predictions Market (Polymarket and Kalshi so far). A unified, real-time view of global sentiment and arbitrage opportunities in one place. 1. Cross-Platform Comparison: See price discrepancies between major markets instantly. 2. Unified Liquidity: Track volume and depth across the entire ecosystem.

AnalyticsNews & Aggregators
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Predexon

Unified API for Prediction Market Data and Trading Granular Historical Data, Smart Wallet Analytics, Cross Platform Market Matching, Trading APIs/SDK, Real Time Websockets

AnalyticsNews & Aggregators
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edge.dog

A truth-seeking engine for Polymarket power users that helps build knowledge faster with AI

AnalyticsPrediction Markets
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PolyTraderPro

Professional-grade trading terminal for prediction markets.

Trading InterfaceAnalytics
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Stand.trade

Mobile-optimized prediction market trading platform.

Trading Interface
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99c

Advanced trading platform for prediction markets.

Trading InterfaceAnalytics
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Onyx Terminal

Professional trading terminal for prediction markets.

Trading InterfaceAnalytics
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Polymtrade

Native mobile app terminal for prediction markets.

Trading Interface
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Based

Simplified prediction market interface for crypto natives.

Trading Interface
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Rainbow

Wallet-integrated prediction market interface.

WalletTrading Interface
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polyinsiders

Exclusive community for alpha and trading signals.

CommunitySignals
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Almanac

Historical data archive for prediction markets.

AnalyticsResearch
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Sharpe Terminal

Institutional-grade risk management terminal.

Trading InterfacePro Tool
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Synthesis

Data synthesis tool combining polls and market odds.

AnalyticsResearch
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polyagentleague

Competitive AI agent leaderboards.

AnalyticsCommunity
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Matchr.xyz

Independent frontend for decentralized betting.

Trading Interface
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polyoptionz

Advanced derivatives and options interface.

Trading InterfacePro Tool
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Tator Trader

Conversational AI assistant for crypto trading.

Trading InterfaceAI
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humanplane.com

Human-centric prediction interface.

Trading Interface
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PolyAI

Advanced AI market research agent.

AIResearch
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Prophet Arena

Compare AI model performance across prediction markets.

AIAnalytics
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Clutch Exchange

Trade livestreams

SocialTrading Interface
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Kalshinomics

Prediction markets, simplified. Clean tables, fast filters, curated markets

Trading InterfaceAnalytics
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Pentagon Pizza

Tracking Pentagon-area pizza + OSINT to inform prediction markets

ResearchAnalytics
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ZSC DAO

Building tools & community resources to bring Polymarket into everyday lexicon

CommunityInfrastructure
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Clutch Bet

Sportsbetting app powered by Polymarket that lets you combine multiple bets into a single one

Trading InterfaceMarket Maker
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Axiom Terminal

Axiom-style Trading Terminal for Prediction Markets

Trading InterfacePro Tool
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Froggy Friends

Bet on the news with your friends

SocialCommunity
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Wallet Analyzer

Wallet Analyzer’s previously listed website could not be reached. Its current operator, features and pricing have not been verified.

AnalyticsResearch
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Prediction Terminal

Data Analytics and Trading Platform for Prediction Markets

Trading InterfaceAnalytics
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Polymarket Terminal

Building Polymarket all-in-one terminal. Discover Analyze and Trade

Trading InterfaceAnalytics
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Simple Copy Trading

The most user-friendly Polymarket copy trading app. Simple, powerful, and built for everyone — from first-time bettors to seasoned traders

Trading BotTrading Interface
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Onsight Telegram

Onsight is the seamless prediction market trading tool, allowing you to participate in any market directly from Telegram

Trading BotTrading Interface
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Stack Bet

Stack Polymarket predictions into one leveraged bet, or be the bookie and pick which odds you back

Trading InterfaceMarket Maker
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Polymarket

The official Polymarket international prediction-market platform. Polymarket US is a separate venue.

Trading InterfaceAnalytics
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Trading Analytics Platform

Analytics platform focused on trading and data on Polymarket

AnalyticsTrading Interface
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Mobile Trading Terminal

The first mobile trading terminal for Polymarket with AI-powered insights

Trading InterfaceAI
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Polyverse Options

Bringing the power of options to the Polyverse

Pro ToolTrading Interface
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Limitless

High-volume prediction market exchange on Base with CLOB order matching and deep liquidity.

Trading Interface
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SX Bet

Sports-focused prediction market on SX Rollup with $1B+ volume and CLOB matching.

Trading Interface
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Probable

High-volume prediction market on BNB Smart Chain with $2.8B in trading volume.

Trading Interface
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Myriad Market

Multi-chain AMM prediction market supporting BNB, Abstract, and Linea networks.

Trading InterfaceDeFi
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XO Market

AMM-based prediction market on XO Chain with $130M+ in trading volume.

Trading Interface
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Football.fun

Sports prediction market on Base with $94M+ volume and scalar outcome betting.

Trading InterfaceSocial
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Fliq

Binary prediction market on Aptos with CLOB matching and $36M+ volume.

Trading Interface
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PredictIt

CFTC-regulated US prediction market focused on political events and elections.

Trading InterfaceResearch
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Futuur

Off-chain prediction market with CLOB matching covering global events and politics.

Trading Interface
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Hedgehog Markets

Solana-based prediction market with AMM and CLOB hybrid order matching.

Trading InterfaceDeFi
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Azuro

Decentralized sportsbook protocol powering prediction apps across EVM chains.

InfrastructureTrading Interface
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Overtime

Multi-chain sportsbook on Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism with binary and scalar markets.

Trading InterfaceDeFi
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Zeitgeist

Prediction market protocol on Polkadot with categorical and scalar markets.

Trading InterfaceInfrastructure
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DraftKings Prediction

Prediction markets from DraftKings, the major US fantasy sports and betting platform.

Trading Interface
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Precog Protocol

Fully onchain, token-agnostic prediction market protocol on Base using LS-LMSR.

Trading Interface
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Triad

Solana-based prediction market with CLOB order book and fast settlement.

Trading Interface
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Rain

AMM-powered prediction market on Arbitrum for binary and categorical events.

Trading InterfaceDeFi
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9lives

AMM prediction market on Superposition chain with binary and categorical markets.

Trading Interface
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TimeLess

CLOB prediction market on BNB Smart Chain with binary outcome trading.

Trading Interface
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Truemarkets

CLOB-based prediction market on Base with binary outcome markets.

Trading Interface
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Tradefox

Trading terminal and aggregator for Polymarket with $2M+ in routed volume.

Trading InterfaceAnalytics
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Augur

Pioneer decentralized prediction market protocol and oracle on Ethereum.

InfrastructureTrading Interface
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Kiyotaka

AI-powered trading terminal for Polymarket with intelligent market analysis.

Trading InterfaceAI
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Flipr

Trading terminal and bot for Polymarket with automated execution features.

Trading BotTrading Interface
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MetaDAO

Futarchy-based governance protocol on Solana using prediction markets for decision-making.

InfrastructureResearch
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Okaybet

Prediction market aggregator and trading terminal across multiple platforms.

Trading InterfaceAnalytics
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Nexus Tools

New trading terminal for Polymarket with advanced analytics and execution.

Trading InterfaceAnalytics
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