Prediction market research

Researchers studying pricing, forecasting and market design.

6 researchers · Sources checked October 25, 2026

Researchers to follow

Selected for recent original work, with a profile and a place to start reading.

Andrew Hall
Stanford University
Market governance, contract resolution and AI judges.
Article · January 2026
How AI judges can scale prediction markets
Anthony M. Diercks
Federal Reserve Board
Macroeconomic forecasts from prediction market prices.
Working paper · February 2026
Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets
Guillermo Suarez-Tangil
IMDEA Networks Institute
Arbitrage and pricing inconsistencies on Polymarket.
Paper · PDF · 2025
Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Pricing bias and maker–taker returns on Kalshi.
Working paper · PDF · January 2026
Makers and Takers: The Economics of the Kalshi Prediction Market
Robert Bartlett
Stanford Law School
Informed trading, spreads and market maker returns.
Working paper · April 2026
Adverse Selection in Prediction Markets: Evidence from Kalshi
Roberto Gómez-Cram
London Business School
Trader skill and forecast accuracy on Polymarket.
Working paper · June 2026 revision
Prediction Market Accuracy: Crowd Wisdom or Informed Minority?