OVERROUND

Profit leaderboards mostly reward bankroll and luck. OVERROUND asks a narrower question: which Polymarket wallets are actually worth watching? It rebuilds the leaderboard from the complete on-chain fill history (488 million fills, more than 700,000 wallets scored across 60+ categories as of July 2026), collapses correlated markets into independent events, removes the structural longshot premium, shrinks small samples toward the category baseline, and ranks wallets within their domain of expertise. Each ranked wallet gets a public calibration record, and every featured alert (the alert stream subscribers receive) is graded in public on the receipts page, losses included. The methodology is published in full, including its limitations. OVERROUND is an information product: it does not execute trades, hold funds, or recommend transactions.