Robinhood's Event Contracts to Eclipse Crypto Revenue
Retail trading giant Robinhood is poised to see its prediction market revenue eclipse its crypto earnings by 2028, according to new forecasts from Bernstein analysts. A report shared with Cointelegraph projects that event contracts could drive up to $1.7 billion in business for Robinhood within two years, accounting for roughly 18% of the platform's estimated $9.4 billion total 2028 revenue. Bernstein analysts raised Robinhood's revenue estimates by 3% for 2026, 4% for 2027, and 3% for 2028, citing higher equities and crypto revenue assumptions alongside the booming event contract sector.
The analysts expect Robinhood's prediction market revenue to surge from approximately $650 million this year to the $1.7 billion mark, outpacing a projected $1.6 billion in crypto-based revenues for 2028. The forecast arrives just ahead of Robinhood's third-quarter earnings report, where Bernstein anticipates a 13% quarter-over-quarter revenue increase to $1.5 billion, fueled by growing equity notional volumes, options volumes, and event contract activity. Bernstein maintained its $160 price target for HOOD, even as premarket activity saw shares dip to $93.60. Traders looking to compare retail platforms against decentralized alternatives often utilize a prediction market calculator to evaluate potential returns across different ecosystems.
Wall Street Deepens Prediction Market Ties
The retail brokerage's projected growth coincides with traditional Wall Street institutions deepening their footprint in the sector. On Monday, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced a collaboration with Kalshi to offer event contracts tied to the financial index provider's benchmarks. According to Cointelegraph, Kalshi will serve as a preferred platform for these contracts, settling them based on official index values published directly by the company.
Furthermore, S&P DJI plans to explore developing new indexes utilizing Kalshi's prediction market data to track expectations around economic developments and political outcomes, rather than traditional asset performance. This institutional integration follows similar moves by major exchange operators, including Nasdaq's recent market surveillance partnership with Kalshi and Intercontinental Exchange's $2 billion commitment to Polymarket in late 2025. For users navigating these expanding regulated ecosystems, exploring the best Kalshi tools can provide an edge in analyzing benchmark-tied markets.