Federal Judge Blocks Tennessee's Crackdown on Kalshi
In a significant legal victory for US-regulated prediction markets, US Federal Judge Aleta Trauger has granted Kalshi a preliminary injunction against the state of Tennessee. The ruling effectively halts the state's attempt to classify Kalshi's operations as illegal gambling. According to Cointelegraph, Judge Trauger found that Kalshi's sports event contracts fall squarely under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), rather than state gaming commissions.
This decision marks a turning point in the ongoing battle between state regulators and federally regulated exchanges. Legal experts suggest that states are facing difficulties when challenging these markets on narrow legal definitions. As reported by Decrypt, while some states have scored victories by invoking congressional intent, Tennessee's focus on specific definitions failed to persuade the court, allowing Kalshi to continue operations in the region.
Netherlands Gambling Authority Bans Polymarket
While Kalshi celebrates a win in the US, its offshore competitor is facing new headwinds in Europe. The Netherlands Gambling Authority has ordered Polymarket to immediately cease operations within the country. The regulator specifically targeted the platform's Dutch arm, Adventure One, alleging it offered illegal bets, including markets on elections in the Netherlands.
According to a report from Decrypt, the Dutch regulator classified these activities as "illegal gambling services," mandating a halt to all activities. This follows a broader trend of European regulators scrutinizing decentralized prediction markets that operate without local licenses.
Federal Reserve Researchers Endorse Prediction Data
Beyond the courtroom, prediction markets received validation from the financial sector today. New research from the Federal Reserve suggests that market-based forecasts may be superior to traditional analyst consensus. The Defiant reports that Fed researchers found Kalshi markets often outperform Wall Street surveys, citing the platform's "rich intraday dynamics" which allow for real-time measurement of expectations during major financial events.
For traders and analysts tracking these regulatory shifts and market performance, predictionmarketstools.com continues to provide essential data and analysis on the evolving landscape.