Bitcoin Sentiment Sours on Prediction Markets
As Bitcoin's price slipped below $65,000 on Monday, bearish sentiment has surged on the world's largest prediction market. According to data reported by CoinTelegraph, Polymarket bettors are now assigning a 72% probability to Bitcoin falling under $55,000. This pessimism comes as the asset's market cap dropped to $1.31 trillion, sliding it to the 15th spot in global asset rankings.
Traders utilizing prediction market tools are closely watching these liquidity shifts, as the platform's volume often acts as a leading indicator for broader retail sentiment.
Kalshi Wins Federal Injunction in Tennessee
While crypto markets face volatility, regulated exchange Kalshi secured a major victory for the domestic prediction market industry. A federal judge has issued a preliminary injunction blocking Tennessee from cracking down on the platform. As detailed by CoinTelegraph, US Federal Judge Aleta Trauger ruled that Kalshi's sports event contracts fall firmly under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), effectively preempting state-level interference.
This ruling marks a turning point after a series of state-level challenges. Legal experts cited by Decrypt suggest that states are losing legal ground when they focus on narrow definitions of gambling rather than broader congressional intent regarding commodities regulation.
Netherlands Bans Polymarket Affiliate
Conversely, regulatory pressure is intensifying in Europe. The Netherlands Gambling Authority has ordered Adventure One, a Polymarket affiliate, to cease operations immediately. Decrypt reports that the Dutch regulator flagged the platform for offering "illegal gambling services," specifically citing bets related to elections in the Netherlands.
Fed Research Validates Market Data
Amidst the legal battles, the fundamental utility of prediction markets received institutional validation this week. The Defiant reports that new research from the Federal Reserve indicates Kalshi markets are outperforming traditional Wall Street surveys in forecasting economic outcomes, further cementing the argument that these platforms serve a public utility beyond speculation.