Bernstein Projects $10 Trillion Market as Blockchain.com Formalizes CFTC Bid
Wall Street's expectations for the event contract industry have expanded exponentially, with research firm Bernstein now projecting that prediction markets will eventually handle $10 trillion a year in trading volume. The massive forecast underscores the growing institutional appetite for event-driven derivatives, a sector currently dominated by platforms navigating complex regulatory hurdles.
Capitalizing on this projected growth, crypto services provider Blockchain.com has officially formalized its entry into the U.S. regulatory gauntlet. Following preliminary reports last week, the company announced on October 13 that it has formally submitted applications to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for two critical operational licenses: Designated Contract Market (DCM) status and Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) registration.
Dual-License Strategy for Retail and Institutional Traders
According to The Defiant, this dual-license approach is designed to cover the entire lifecycle of a trade. The DCM status would permit Blockchain.com to operate the actual exchange where futures and options trade, while the FCM registration—delegated by the CFTC to the National Futures Association—would allow the firm to legally accept customer orders and custody the assets backing them.
"Users should be able to manage their digital assets, trade derivatives, and take positions on real-world events easily, without jumping between different apps," said Blockchain.com CEO and co-founder Peter Smith in the official announcement.
The move represents a significant escalation in the race to capture U.S. market share. While offshore platforms currently command significant crypto-native volume, securing explicit CFTC approval remains the holy grail for tapping into traditional finance liquidity. Traders evaluating the shifting landscape often compare the regulatory moats of existing platforms, a dynamic explored in our Kalshi vs Polymarket analysis.
If approved, Blockchain.com's U.S. offering would build upon the self-custodial prediction market and perpetual futures products it rolled out internationally earlier this year. The company, which claims to have processed over $1.1 trillion in crypto transactions since 2011, has not yet set a target launch date for the U.S. derivatives business. As the industry scales toward Bernstein's $10 trillion target, the demand for sophisticated trading infrastructure and prediction markets with API access is expected to surge among institutional participants.