UK FCA Reconsiders Prediction Market Ban
The United Kingdom's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is reportedly reconsidering its stance on financial prediction markets. According to a report from CoinDesk, the regulator has held talks with trading platforms as British citizens increasingly turn to platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Companies offering binary options for retail investors have been barred from selling and marketing these products in the UK since a 2019 FCA directive. While the agency's public position still supports the ban, the recent dialogues suggest a potential regulatory thaw.
Polymarket Traders Price In September Rate Hike
In the United States, prediction markets reacted violently to a blowout August payrolls report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 162,000 August jobs, a figure that came in three times above forecast and five times the average of the prior year. The macroeconomic shockwaves were immediately visible on-chain.
According to The Defiant, Polymarket traders moved a quarter-point September rate increase from 39.5 cents to the majority outcome inside of just 15 minutes. Overall September hike odds have now been pushed toward 58%. The hawkish data knocked Bitcoin off the $81,000 mark, with the asset falling $1,430 in the five minutes following the data release, though it has since managed to hold support at $79,000. For traders looking to track these rapid probability shifts across decentralized platforms, predictionmarketstools.com provides essential market aggregation data.
Polymarket Launches Perps as Kalshi Nears Supreme Court
Platform expansion continues alongside the macroeconomic volatility. Polymarket recently launched a new Crypto Perpetual Futures product offering up to 20x leverage. As Decrypt notes, the "Perps" product scaled rapidly from 10 markets to 67 on its first day of trading, though the 20x leverage ceiling is restricted to specific markets and remains entirely unavailable to U.S. traders.
Meanwhile, domestic U.S. platforms are fighting their own legal battles. Kalshi's ongoing legal fight against New Jersey is inching closer to the highest court in the land. Last week, New Jersey petitioned for a writ of certiorari, officially throwing the regulatory battle over domestic prediction markets to the Supreme Court.