$3 Million Wagered on Blockchain Investigation
Speculative activity on Polymarket has surged this Tuesday, driven by a high-stakes guessing game regarding the next target of renowned blockchain sleuth ZachXBT. According to CoinDesk, bettors have poured over $3 million into a market predicting which crypto firm will be exposed in a probe set for release this Wednesday.
Current market pricing suggests the Solana-based application Meteora is the most likely target, leading the odds with a 43% probability. The intense volume follows a teaser from the investigator regarding a "major" insider-trading probe, highlighting how traders on predictionmarketstools.com and similar platforms are increasingly financializing news events before they happen.
Kalshi Clears Suspicious Activity Backlog
While decentralized markets speculate on investigations, the U.S.-regulated exchange Kalshi is tightening its own internal controls. Decrypt reports that Kalshi has successfully cleared a "backlog" of suspicious activity and plans to disclose specific actions taken against insider trading and market manipulation. This move is part of a broader effort to bolster trust in regulated prediction markets.
The compliance update follows a mixed week for Kalshi in the courtroom. While facing challenges in some jurisdictions, the platform recently secured a legal victory in Tennessee. As noted by legal experts speaking to Decrypt, the Tennessee win suggests that states may lose lawsuits against prediction markets when they focus on narrow legal definitions rather than broad congressional intent.
Bearish Sentiment and European Regulatory Pressure
Beyond the courtroom and investigation markets, pure price prediction markets are signaling pessimism for the broader crypto sector. Data from Cointelegraph indicates that Polymarket bettors are pricing in a 72% chance that Bitcoin will trade below $55,000, coinciding with the asset's market cap slipping to $1.31 trillion.
Furthermore, regulatory friction continues to expand in Europe. The Dutch regulator has ordered a Polymarket affiliate, Adventure One, to halt operations, alleging the provision of illegal bets on Netherlands elections, according to Dutch authorities.