Kalshi has issued its first-ever lifetime ban to a politician, permanently barring former congressman George Santos after an investigation revealed he manipulated event contracts. In a related crackdown, North Carolina Republican House candidate Laurie Buckhout received a three-year suspension.
According to Decrypt, Santos placed large trades on his own State of the Union attendance and subsequently made false statements to move prices, netting nearly $18,000 in profit. Meanwhile, Buckhout was suspended for purchasing less than $1,000 in contracts on her own race, Cointelegraph reports. For traders tracking these critical platform policy shifts, predictionmarketstools.com provides essential real-time updates on market availability and exchange rules.
Polymarket Hits $21 Billion Valuation
While Kalshi polices its political markets, rival Polymarket is closing a massive funding round. A reported $1 billion investment round led by Donald Trump Jr.-linked 1789 Capital will value the decentralized prediction platform at $21 billion. This places the platform just beneath Kalshi’s $22 billion valuation, according to recent reports.
Traders Price in September Rate Hike Amid Soft Jobs Data
On the macro front, prediction market traders are heavily favoring a September interest rate increase. Polymarket currently prices a quarter-point hike at 55.5% following Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, a sharp increase from 28% last Friday, as noted by The Defiant.
This shift in rate expectations coincides with a soft ADP report showing private-sector job growth of just 38,000—the weakest level since January. Despite the missed forecasts, Bitcoin continues to trade near $77,000, according to CoinDesk.