Kalshi and Polymarket See Record Volumes
Regulated prediction market Kalshi posted a record-breaking June, surpassing $9 billion in trading volume. According to DefiLlama data reported by Cointelegraph, the massive surge was primarily fueled by betting activity surrounding the expanded FIFA World Cup.
Meanwhile, offshore competitor Polymarket is seeing massive unauthorized participation from American bettors. A new report from data firm Allium, highlighted by CoinDesk, reveals that U.S.-linked wallets traded $571 million in political contracts over the past year. Despite strict geoblocking measures, U.S. users are dominating the platform's global political markets, specifically funneling capital into foreign-conflict markets that domestic U.S. exchanges do not list.
New Entrants and Analytics
As trading activity reaches unprecedented highs across the industry, traders looking to track these disparate platforms can utilize analytics at predictionmarketstools.com. The ecosystem also expanded this week with the launch of "World," a new onchain prediction market on Solana. Unmasked after a two-year teaser campaign under the name "Trade Everything," the platform operates through Phantom wallets using the CASH stablecoin and Chainlink oracles, according to The Defiant.
Regulatory Headwinds in the EU and US
On the regulatory front, platforms are facing increased scrutiny in Europe. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) issued a warning that many prediction market event contracts likely fall under the bloc's existing ban on marketing binary options to retail investors. The regulator stressed that firms cannot circumvent rules by rebranding derivatives as "event contracts," as noted by The Defiant.
In the U.S., the regulatory landscape is poised for a seismic shift. The Supreme Court's 6-3 ruling in Trump v. Slaughter overturned the 91-year-old Humphrey's Executor precedent, clearing the path for the President to fire SEC and CFTC commissioners at will. Amidst this leadership uncertainty, the SEC has opened a 60-day comment period on "Novel ETFs," which include prediction-market funds, following Chair Paul Atkins's May pause on over two dozen pending applications, per The Defiant.