Institutional Forecast: $10 Billion by 2030
The prediction market industry is rapidly transitioning from a niche sector to a recognized asset class, with a new report from Citizens Bank projecting that firms in the space could generate $10 billion in yearly revenue by 2030. According to coverage by CoinDesk, the bank attributes this bullish outlook to rising trading volumes, tighter market structures, and increasing early-stage institutional engagement. As platforms mature, investors utilizing prediction market data tools are seeing a shift away from pure gambling roots toward sophisticated financial hedging.
Polymarket Activity: Investigations and Bearish Sentiment
Traders on Polymarket are driving significant volume today, specifically regarding an anticipated exposé by on-chain investigator ZachXBT. Cointelegraph reports that users have placed more than $7 million in bets on the outcome of the investigation, which is expected to be announced this Thursday. Current odds favor Meteora as the subject of the inquiry.
Broader crypto sentiment on the platform has turned bearish. Following a drop in Bitcoin's market cap to $1.31 trillion, Cointelegraph notes that Polymarket odds now suggest a 72% probability of Bitcoin trading under $55,000, as prices recently dipped below the $65,000 mark.
Regulatory and Integrity Updates
As the industry grows, scrutiny regarding market integrity is intensifying. U.S.-regulated exchange Kalshi is actively working to dissuade market manipulation. Decrypt reports that Kalshi has cleared a "backlog" of suspicious activity and plans to disclose specific actions taken against insider trading to maintain fair market conditions.
Meanwhile, in Europe, regulatory pressure is mounting. The Dutch regulator has ordered a Polymarket affiliate, Adventure One, to cease operations. According to Cointelegraph, the authorities allege the affiliate offered illegal bets, including markets focused on elections in the Netherlands.