Regulatory Clouds Clear for Prediction Markets
The regulatory environment for event contracts saw a massive shift this week as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) officially withdrew a controversial Biden-era proposal that sought to ban sports and political prediction markets. According to Cointelegraph, CFTC Chair Mike Selig characterized the previous administration's attempt to curb these markets as a "frolic into merit regulation," signaling a more open path forward for the industry.
The federal reprieve coincides with a state-level victory for Coinbase. A Nevada judge has declined an emergency bid by state regulators to halt Coinbase’s event contract markets. As reported by Cointelegraph, the exchange is successfully pressing a preemption argument in federal court, allowing its prediction products to remain live despite local opposition.
Kalshi Eyes Super Bowl Records
With regulatory headwinds softening, trading activity is surging. Regulated exchange Kalshi has reported nearly $170 million in Super Bowl-related bets leading up to the big game. To manage this volume and address integrity concerns, Kalshi has established an independent surveillance committee to boost oversight. This move comes as traders increasingly rely on prediction market data to gauge real-time sentiment on major sporting events.
Polymarket Prepares for Token and Upgrades
Offshore leader Polymarket is also positioning itself for expansion. Decrypt reports that the platform has filed trademark applications for "POLY" and "$POLY," suggesting the imminent launch of a native digital token and crypto trading services. Simultaneously, the platform is improving its settlement infrastructure. Polymarket has partnered with Circle to migrate from bridged USDC on Polygon to native USDC, a move designed to reduce cross-chain risks as volume expands, according to Cointelegraph.
Market Sentiment: From Pharma to Divinity
Traders are engaging with increasingly diverse topics beyond sports and politics. In a sign of the sector's unique speculative nature, CoinDesk notes that the odds of Jesus Christ appearing in 2026 have doubled on Polymarket, currently outperforming the return on Bitcoin for the year.