Most Accurate Prediction Markets

Measuring Prediction Market Accuracy

Prediction market accuracy is typically measured using calibration and Brier scores. A well-calibrated market should have events priced at 70% happen 70% of the time. This page compares the historical accuracy of major prediction market platforms.

Understanding Accuracy Metrics

Platform Accuracy Rankings

Factors Affecting Accuracy

• Liquidity - More trading leads to better price discovery
• Trader diversity - Different perspectives improve forecasts
• Information access - Markets with informed participants perform better
• Market design - Clear resolution criteria reduce disputes
• Time horizon - Accuracy tends to improve closer to event resolution

Prediction Markets vs Other Forecasts

Research consistently shows prediction markets outperform:

• Traditional polls (especially for elections)
• Expert panel predictions
• Simple forecasting models

The "wisdom of crowds" effect, combined with financial incentives, creates accurate probability estimates that are difficult to beat.

How to Use Accuracy Data

• Trust high-liquidity markets - More trading = more accurate prices
• Check historical calibration - Has the platform been accurate before?
• Look for edge in low-liquidity markets - Less efficient = more opportunity
• Consider multiple platforms - Cross-reference for better estimates

Related Resources

• Research Tools for Accuracy Analysis
• How to Analyze Prediction Markets
• Prediction Markets for Research