Regulatory Roadblock: Massachusetts Halts Kalshi's Sports Ambitions
In a significant blow to the regulated US prediction market landscape, a Massachusetts judge has granted a preliminary injunction preventing Kalshi from offering sports prediction contracts within the state. The ruling, delivered earlier this week by Suffolk County Superior Court Judge Christopher Barry-Smith, hands a victory to Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Campbell, who argued that Kalshi's offerings bypassed state sports betting licensing requirements.
According to reports from Reuters, the judge noted that Kalshi's platform "mirrors other digital gambling experiences" and utilizes terminology that blurs the line between financial hedging and traditional wagering. This decision comes at a critical juncture for Kalshi, which has been aggressively pivoting toward sports event contracts to compete with offshore alternatives.
For traders, this signals a potential fragmentation of the domestic market. While Kalshi remains federally regulated by the CFTC, state-level interventions like this could force a patchwork of availability, complicating strategies for US-based participants who rely on the platform for legal sports hedging.
Global Volume Hits All-Time Highs
Despite the regulatory friction in New England, the broader prediction market ecosystem is experiencing an unprecedented boom. Data indicates that prediction markets recently posted a record $3.7 billion in weekly trading volume, marking an all-time high for the sector.
This surge is largely driven by crypto-native platforms. Yahoo Finance reports that fragmentation across chains and platforms hasn't slowed liquidity; rather, it has accelerated it. For serious volume traders, this liquidity depth is crucial. Top traders are capitalizing on this volatility, with the Polymarket leaderboard showing traders like "risk-manager" up over $215,000 in a single day, and all-time leaders like "ImJustKen" sitting on profits exceeding $2.7 million.
To stay ahead of these volume trends and identify where the liquidity is flowing, savvy traders should utilize the analytics suites available at Prediction Market Tools.
Sunday Market Watch: Portugal, Shutdowns, and Snow
As of this Sunday, January 25, 2026, several high-stakes markets are resolving or heating up:
- Portugal Presidential Election: The polls are closing, and the market has effectively called the race. Polymarket data shows António José Seguro trading at a staggering 98 cents, leaving challenger André Ventura with a negligible 2% chance. This market serves as a reminder that while political volatility is profitable, the "sure things" often offer little yield for late entrants.
- US Government Shutdown: Closer to home, anxiety is mounting regarding the January 31 deadline. Traders are currently pricing in a 74% chance of another US government shutdown. This is a high-conviction signal from the crowd, suggesting that the current legislative gridlock is viewed as more than just posturing.
- NYC Weather: Weather markets continue to attract niche volume. Traders are betting on the severity of the weekend snowstorm in New York, with an 87% probability that accumulation will exceed 4 inches, forcing a repricing of risk for local businesses hedging against weather disruptions.
The 2028 Horizon
Looking further ahead, the 2028 US Presidential markets remain active despite the long time horizon. PredictIt shows a tightening field for the nominations. On the Democratic side, Gavin Newsom leads at 32 cents, while JD Vance holds a commanding lead for the Republican nomination at 51 cents. However, the immediate focus for macro traders remains the Supreme Court's impending decision on Trump's tariffs, where markets currently favor a "No" ruling (striking down the tariffs) at approximately 63-69% probability across various exchanges.